Anger over coal-fired power station
Demonstrator besiege Premier Baillieu's office protesting over money set aside for a new coal-fired power station
We're too small to arrest global warming, but need to prepare for it anyway.
There may be an argument for Australia to price carbon but it can't be to arrest global warming or slow climate change - we're simply too small an emitter of greenhouse gases for moderate cuts to make any measurable difference.
The strongest justification may be that we need to begin the long process of diversifying our energy sources away from fossil fuels within a set of principles and an economic framework that might fit global rules as they emerge later this decade.
Current proposals suggest that any carbon tax will be revenue neutral during a transition period that may last five years. But although it might start small and exclude significant sectors that use petrol, in order to drive serious investment in clean energy and shift consumer behaviour the carbon price will move quickly above $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide per year, and extend to all parts of our economy, which currently emits about 600 million tonnes per year.
Even allowing for industry compensation payments and protection for low-income households, the revenue flows from any carbon tax or emissions trading scheme beyond the adjustment period are likely to be large - above $20 billion a year.
Energy use will almost certainly continue to grow and emissions will follow. There is presently no affordable alternative to fossil fuels, notwithstanding the hopes for renewable energy, and optimistic forecasts of reductions still leave Australia with hundreds of millions of tonnes of emissions in 2050 and potentially tens of billions of dollars annually of net carbon revenues.
The federal Coalition, while in opposition, may promise the elimination of a carbon tax when they return to office, but the likely emergence in the years ahead of international trade rules requiring a carbon price plus the ensuing financial rivers of gold to rival the GST or mining super profits taxes suggest their well-intentioned resolve should and will give way to fiscal pragmatism. Especially when the current government does the heavy policy lifting and can be blamed for any burdens that voters may feel.
What then is the point of all this? A carbon price in Australia is not a global warming mitigant and is an unconvincing and unpopular structure upon which to drive reform of our economy.
It will raise lots of money, some of which will be invested in clean energy research and development and green jobs - a desirable outcome, especially if properly directed to areas where Australian scientists and manufacturers can make a distinctive contribution.
But perhaps most importantly, funds will become available to help the country better prepare for the changing climate ahead.
The probability of stopping global warming is well below 50 per cent; average temperatures are predicted to rise 2-4 degrees by century end. This will lead to dramatic changes in our environment. We must plan for this.
Even if you don't accept the gravity of the climate change challenge, the following adaptation initiatives still emerge as appropriate national priorities to which funds should be directed:
■ Higher temperatures mean longer periods of drought but more moisture in the air to produce flooding when rain does fall. The management of catchment areas, water security and conservation become more important.
■ Floods, bushfires, storm surges, high winds, cyclones, brutal hailstorms and unrelenting hot spells will put enormous pressure on our emergency services and healthcare delivery as the intensity of extreme weather events increases. Buying insurance protection in high-risk areas will become more expensive.
■ The gentle 3-5 millimetre per year increase in sea levels disguises the amplified impact of storm surges on our coastlines. In addition to tougher zoning regulations, coastal communities will need to construct sea walls - not necessarily to protect against tsunamis but to reduce erosion and damage from storms.
■ Viewers of the various home improvement programs and Kevin McCloud's Grand Designs have seen European home-building regulations require triple-glazed windows, underfloor heating with geothermal heat pumps, 30-centimetre thick insulated walls, and so on. As our electricity, transport and other utility costs soar, steps must be taken to become much more energy efficient in our lifestyles, and construction standards must be developed and enforced to drive this. Our (slightly) smart electricity metres are a very small step in the right direction. All Australian states are working on such a list but there is little co-ordination nor a sense of a coherent plan. If all we do is introduce a carbon price and watch the trend of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions decline over decades, our grandchildren will not thank us.frm smh.com.au
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